The “Demographic Time-Bomb” is a Sham
The contention that Israel must abandon Judea & Samaria, in order to secure Jewish majority, is based on gross errors.
The American-Israel Demographic Research Group (http://www.aidrg.com/) documents in its recent BESA report, “The Million Person Gap” and in its “Forecast for Israel 2025 and Beyond” presented at Herzliya:
- In 1997, the PCBS openly quantified 325,258 residents living abroad and 210,000 counted by Israel in its Census base while over-estimating 300,000 births and over 300,000 in immigration errors during a seven year period through 2004.
- In 2004, there were 1.4 million Arabs in Judea & Samaria, not 2.4 million.
- Since 1997, Jewish population growth has exceeded Arab growth in Judea & Samaria. Average Arab net-emigration has ranged between 10 – 20,000per year and has risen sharply during recent months.
- There is a solid 67% Jewish majority between the Mediterranean Sea and the Jordan River. That percentage has not changed in more than 40 years
- Annual Jewish births have risen by 35 percent since 1995. Arab birth rates have stagnated over the same period.
- Jewish population growth in Judea and Samaria has exceeded Arab growth since 1997. Arab emigration is on the rise.
- There is no demographic justification for abandoning Judea & Samaria to the terror gangs of Fatah and Hamas!
- Jewish demography is a strategic asset, not a liability. Leaders shape demography according to strategy and not vise versa.
- Judea & Samaria provide 40% of Israel’s water. They are the “Golan Heights” of Jerusalem, Tel Aviv, and the coastal plane.
THE DEMOGRAPHIC MOMENTUM IS JEWISH!
LET’S KEEP IT THAT WAY.
OK, but what would we do with all these Arabs? Either you give them citizenship, or declare an apartheid regime. There is no other way to solve the issue of 1.4 million Arabs under Israeli control.
Now for the figures you brought.
* Since 1997, Jewish population growth has exceeded Arab growth in Judea & Samaria.
but still, there are ~300,000 Jews there and ~1.4 *million* arabs.
* There is a solid 67% Jewish majority between the Mediterranean Sea and the Jordan River.
You call that "solid"? inside Israel there is a majority of 76% Jews over 20% Arabs. The rest are other minorities, as well as Christian Russians who came with the immigrants but are not interested in Judaism.
* Annual Jewish births have risen by 35 percent since 1995. Arab birth rates have stagnated over the same period.
But what are the absolute numbers? How do the Jewish and Arab birth rates compare?
* Jewish population growth... has exceeded Arab growth since 1997
Again, this may be so, but there is still a verrrrry long way until there are more Jews than Arabs in Judea and Samaria.
In short, more right-wing propaganda.
Posted by: Tsahi | August 21, 2008 at 06:52 AM
To Tsahi:
Thank you for your comment on demography.
First, out of necessity, the ads must be kept short.
Second, the ad attempted to show how Arab propaganda of deception is leading our failed government to make dangerous policy decisions. this particular deception re demography - has led our government to believe that there are 2.2 million Arabs in Judea and Samaria, and not 1.4 million, an 800,000 exaggeration no less! Even that number seems high and considering that the base number in 1997 was provided by the Arabs should not be taken at face value.
We have also pointed out numerous times that contrary to the Arab League's propaganda campaign against Israel, the "Palestinians" are an invention of the Arab League. The Arab League created the P.L.O. terrorist gang in Cairo in 1964 as the "Palestinian Liberation Organization".
No one called the Arabs in the area "Palestinians" prior to 1964.
These Arabs, educated in their mosques and schools for Jihad against Israel, are mere proxies of the Arab League!
The Arabs in our land have come to Eretz Israel in recent decades from neighbouring Arab lands, many during the British Mandate.
The "Palestinians" have no right to our land and no right to our Holy City Jerusalem; and yet, in their more recent outrageous propaganda, had the audacity to call Jerusalem their "eternal capital"!!!
The demography scare tactics are confusing our people to the extent that they don't stop to think that you cannot sacrifice your land and defensive borders for this hoax.
There is no moral or legal obligation on Israel to create such a hostile state on our land, nor does the government owe hostile people citizenship.
As for you last remark - we will refrain from comment...
Please see also "A Voice of Sanity" http://www.justpeaceforisrael.com/2008/08/a-voice-of-sanity.html, the English version of the ad we placed in Haaretz on Friday, August, 29, 2008, as it relates to your query.
Posted by: Just Peace For Israel | August 31, 2008 at 02:30 PM
well, let's pick apart the statistics, shall we?
before i begin, let me site my sources: "Israel: Former Jewish State" by Moshe Geldinger, "A History of the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict" by Mark Tessler, "The Case for Peace: How the Arab-Israeli Conflict Can be Resolved" by Alan Dershowitz and of course, wikipedia and the cia world factbook.
Israel, the middle east, judaism and islam, and anthropology are interests of mine, and i am not biased one way or other towards any demographic group; i find the current situation both painful and intriguing.
From what I've read, the "time bomb" is quite real, but how imminent it is is a matter of debate.
about 19% of israel are arabs, most of whom (about 94%) are muslims. the rest are mostly christians. every year for the last 30 years, several hundred to over a thousand arabs immigrate into israel from the occupied territories to evade poverty and air strikes. this isn't much compared to the few thousand jewish who move into israel every year, especially from the west and africa, but it is significantly higher when one considers that the vast majority of the jewish immigrants (about 90%) move back to their nation of origin within 5 years. over 40,000 have moved from germany since the german reunification, of whom about 37,000 have since moved back to germany. add this to the israeli-born jews who flee every year to avoid the high taxation, conscription, stagnant economy, unemployment, and threat of violence. i have read that between 1 and 5 thousand israeli-born jews leave the country every year, most of whom move to the usa, germany, france, or greece. and let's not kid ourselves: between aggressive leaders in israel and corrupt leaders in palestine, things in palestine aren't going to improve any time soon, and the arabs will continue to move into israel in large numbers.
in addition, jewish women in israel have low birth rates compared to arab women. arab women who immigrate to israel will have an average of 4.3 children, and arab women born in israel will have an average 3.3 children each, while israeli-born jewish women will have an average of 1.8 children each. jewish women in israel tend to marry later in life and tend to have better jobs, so they tend to have less children.
**as well,**
israeli young people (especially jewish people under the age of 25) are becoming less and less religious every year. some estimates claim that about 11% of israeli jewish people under the age of 25 are atheist, with an additional 59% who simply are not religious. this is evident in the rise of party-drug-nightclub culture in israel's larger cities, especially tel-aviv. this creates an environment where even more jewish israelis will flee the country, since many fewer of them feel a connection to israel on a religious basis. in addition, this creates a climate for inter-ethnic relationships and marriages ultimately leading to mixed people who will not likely side with israeli zionist practices, and are probably more likely to espouse friendship between the cultures, not dominance and antagonism, which has been the political ideology of many of israel's leaders. young jewish people are an additional demographic who are more and more disenfranchised and poorly represented in government, and will likely side with the changing political environment rather than continued (and failing) status-quo, especially since they are both inheriting the country's massive debt and being forced into compulsory military service to defend a state to which they don't feel the same attachment as their more conservative parents, whom they may blame for the many problems it has.
to recap:
my estimates based on all of the data i have read conclude that:
> for every 1 jewish person who moves into israel and stays longer than 10 years, there are about 2.2 arabs who move in permanently.
> for every 1 arab person who moves into israel to stay permanently, there are about 1.4 jewish people who move out of the country to stay permanently.
> at current birth rates, it will take about about 13 years for the arab population in israel to double, but it will take about 39 years for the jewish population to double.
> young jewish israelis are likely to be non-religious, which may increase the likelihood they will leave the country or not support the current israeli government, which tends to lean toward orthodoxy (thus alienating them).
when i do the math and factor all the variables, i estimate that, based on the 2008 census, the arabs will constitute at least half of the population of israel by sometime between 2035 and 2045, provided israel doesn't annex the west bank, in which case that change would be much sooner.
i hate to admit it, but things aren't looking good for israel, at least in a sense of it remaining as a "jewish state." but the fact of the matter is, israel, the state, is as good for jewish people as it is harmful, and whether or not it remains a "jewish state" is irrelevant. all that matters is that jewish people may still call it home if they please, and that, i assure you, will not change, no matter how radically the socio-political structure or ideology of the "state" changes.
Posted by: Gordon Goldblatt | August 14, 2011 at 12:00 AM